Anthony is 58 years old and incarcerated in the US (SC).
My name is Anthony. My friends call me “Dr. J” and you can do the same if you would like.
I am a Christian. In 2022, I earned a PhD in Christian Education during my incarceration. (Thus, my new nick name “Dr. J”) I have been incarcerated since July 2016, almost 7 years and counting. I plan to be released soon via Executive Clemency granted by President Biden. This month, April, is what is called “Second Chance Month” and the President has declared Second Chance Month as the time to commute federal sentences. Also, I have recently earned certification from the U.S. Department of Labor as a Teacher Aide. That apprenticeship took 4,000 hours and over 5 years to complete, during the nadir of the COVID-19 pandemic. I am very proud to have earned that certification because it complements the PhD and will allow me to teach, which I am so passionate about.
For leisure, I enjoy music, Latin dance, live jazz, and symphony orchestra & philharmonic. I also enjoy reading (The Wall Street Journal, in particular), cycling and hiking. I plan to incorporate cycling and hiking as part of my daily health and wellness routine as studies have shown that hiking can offer a scenic route to mental heath and fitness. I believe that being incarcerated, especially at a high-level federal penitentiary, with lockdowns, violence, and lack of sense of security, has had some affect on me mentally and emotionally. Being out on the walking track has offered me that quantum of solace to get away from it all. Hiking and seeing the earth as God created it will offer a sense of community. We come from different places but we’re all working toward the same goal, so we’re family. There are three major hiking trails I’d like to conquer: The Pacific Crest Trail (PCT) in Southern California; Appalachian Trail, and the Pacific Crest and Continental divide, the so-called triple crown of hiking. My next venture will be to backpack through all 28 European Union countries. In fact, that was my next endeavor but for my arrest in 2016.
I have been married and divorced three times. I enjoyed each of my marriages and believe in the institution of marriage as a union between man and woman. Looking back on the marriages, I now know why they were not successful: I did not take the time and opportunity to become the best friend I could be and did not tie in the cord of the three strands, to wit: she, me and God. Ultimately, success without friendship is meaningless. And, without friendship as a foundational basis, the relationship will not last. Since true friends cannot be manufactured with purely on sexual intimacy and attraction, time should be invested in forming a friendship, with God as the third strand, weaving the husband and wife tightly together. That is the lesson I have learned from my previous marriages.
My release plans are to enter academia and teach at the collegiate level, continue to market, advertise, and promote my Adult Continuing Education courses to inmates in state and federal prisons, and ultimately teach internationally. I plan to open a coffee shop in Costa Rica to teach foreign nationals how to invest in the stock market, with computers in the cafe and weekly stock analysis and tips. I plan to name the coffee shop: “Dr. J’s Stocks+Options Cafe.” I have written two books, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” my two-book training course, and will republish upon my release as audio books as well.
I am preparing to transfer to a new prison in a few weeks. So, if there is a delay in receiving any communication from me, that is the reason. I don’t know where I will land, so please, be patient. Ecclesiastes 4:12 tells us that a cord of three strands isn’t quickly broken. It takes three people to form that cord: You, me and God as our third strand, weaving us tightly together. Would you like to join me in developing a threesome, with God as the centerpiece of our friendship?
In His Name,
Education -with Dr. J
As a Ph.D. candidate in Christian Education, I have designed an education curriculum based on my education philosophy consisting of three critical characteristics:
1. Rigorous curriculum;
2. Focus on key topics; and
3. Coherent logic.
I have designed an education curriculum for GED, ESL and financial literacy for adult continuing education. And I ensure that my students engage in critical thinking, communication, collaboration, and creativity while learning. My philosophy is that each class should not be more than 25-30 minutes and each course should focus on no more than 7+/-2 items on a checklist. Seven plus/minus two is a legal art of persuasion on limitations of information transmission and is the magic number that characterizes people’s memory performance on random lists of letters, words, numbers, etc. This theory was advanced by George A. Miller, a cognitive psychologist, and is known as “Miller’s Law.”
Let’s take a moment to think about the magic number of seven:
-Seven wonders of the world
-Seven deadly sins
-Seven daughters of Atlas in the Pleiades
-Seven ages of man
-Seven primary colors
-Seven notes on a musical scale
-Seven days of the week
As an educator, I plan to use Miller’s Law as a guide in my teaching curriculum. Education is the key. It opens doors!
The Pandemic Divide -with Dr. J
The pandemic has divided the economy in a “K”-shaped recovery with the upper level representing well-educated professionals and business people working in the digital economy, investments, and tech-driven ventures. The bottom level represents the lower-wage, and low-skilled workers with old-line survival businesses, like travel & tourism, restaurants, retail and hotel employees.
The International Monetary fund has called the dynamic, “the great divergence.” The United Nations has dubbed the pandemic the “inequality virus.”
Until the economic shock of the virus and lockdowns, the 21st century had largely been a story of the developing world reducing the gap with the developed world in terms of wealth, health, stability, and education. In Latin America, well over 100 million children -more than half the total- are out of school, and many are unlikely to return, raising fears of a generation losing the benefits of education.
Online schooling isn’t feasible across much of the developing world, where Wi-Fi networks aren’t routinely available and the poor can’t afford or get access to the internet. And, with the pandemic, developing nations have experienced higher lending rates, metastasizing longer term borrowing, which will stifle the kind of investments needed for infrastructure and education.
For more information on the pandemic divide, pick a copy of my book, “The Pandemic Divide,” by Anthony Johnson, Ph.D., on Amazon. Other books in the pandemic series include:
– Post-Pandemic Debt Economics
– Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis
– Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis II (Summer 2021)
– Foreclosure Pandemic
– Small Business Pandemic
– The Pandemic Crash of 2029
– Economic Disparity: The Pandemic Effect and Racism’s Economic Toll
– Broadband Pandemic
– The Pandemic Isn’t God’s Will: How Religion Will Continue to Shape Modern Economics in a Post-Pandemic World (Doctoral Dissertation, Fall 2021)
E-Discovery & Data Science -with Dr. J
In the computer age, 99% of all documents are created and stored electronically. With the press of a computer key, an email can be sent around the world.
Electronic documents have been described as email, spreadsheets, word processing documents, audio, video, or any other content that has metastasized in a digital format.
Like it or not, electronic evidence is here to stay. The voluminous nature of data creation is making it more difficult to coral relevant electronically stored information. Herein lies the essence of electronic discovery and data science to narrow the vast disconnect between the layperson and technology. My e-discovery “nuts and bolts” and data science series will be your guide in your efforts to marry technology with document creation and retrieval.
My Electronic Discovery “Nuts and Bolts” and Data Science series include:
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Identity Theft Prevention and Protection, Volume I
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Identity Theft Prevention and Protection, Volume II
– The Essentials of E-Discovery That Every Lawyer Needs to Know
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Healthcare Professional (101 Tips for Healthcare Professionals), with Dr. Dale Newton
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Paralegals
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Financial Arbitration
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Consumer Debt Mediation
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Post-Conviction Relief
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Pro Se Litigants
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for International Tax Lawyers (The Panama Papers, Volume I)
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Lawyers in the European Union (The Panama Papers, Volume II)
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Cyber Insurance Litigation Readiness
– The Essentials of E-Discovery for Wrongful Termination
– The Essentials of E-Discovery: The Role of Mediation in ESI Disputes
– Too Big For Fraud (E-Discovery for Foreclosure)
– Too Big For Fraud (Crisis of the Day Short Story)
– Medical Deficit Disorder
– A Debtor’s Burden
Religious Philosophy -with Dr. J
My religious philosophy is based on the premise that the Christian life is more than creeds, professions, and convictions. For me, it also includes conduct and character. Our deeds must be commiserate with our creeds, and our belief system should be evident with Christlike behavior.
For me, Christianity is not a religion or philosophy, but a relationship and a lifestyle. The core of that lifestyle is thinking of others and doing unto others as you would like them to do unto you. The Bible says, “We should think of their good and try to help them by doing what pleases them. Even Christ did not try to please himself.” Romans 15: 2-3 (CEV)
Thinking of others is at the forefront of living in Christlike manner and the best evidence of spiritual growth. It takes a lot of work, focus, and responsibility in becoming Christlike. I have learned to lean on three guardrails to achieve my goal of becoming more like Christ:
– First, I have learned, and am continually learning to let go of old ways of acting, which metastasizes from my thinking;
– Second, I must continually change the way I think because the mind is the transformer which enables actions;
– Third, I have learned from my spiritual studies to “put on” the character of Christ by developing new, godly habits. My character is essentially the sum of my habits; it is how I habitually act and is ultimately the end product of who I am. I cannot be more, do more, or become more without character.
In his book, “Sacred Pathways,” Gary Thomas identifies nine of the ways people draw near to God and become Christlike:
1. NATURALISTS are most inspired to love God out-of-doors, in natural settings;
2. SENSATES love God with the senses and appreciate beautiful worship services that involve their sight, taste, smell, and touch;
3. TRADITIONALISTS draw closer to God through rituals, liturgies, symbols, and unchanging structures;
4. ASCETICS prefer to love God in solitude and simplicity;
5. ACTIVISTS love God through confronting evil, battling injustice, and working to make the world a better place;
6. CAREGIVERS love God by loving others and meeting their needs;
7. ENTHUSIASTS love God through celebration;
8. CONTEMPLATIVES love God through adoration; and
9. INTELLECTUALS love God by studying with their minds.
There is no “one-size-fits-all” approach to worship and friendship with God. Take a moment to reflect on these concepts and let me know how you love God. I will be excited to hear from you!
Executive Clemency Submitted
Anthony Johnson has submitted a Petition for Executive Clemency to the President of the United States. The Office of the Pardon Attorney, Elizabet G. Oyer, Pardon Attorney, has received the petition on October 18, 2022. However, to date, the petition has not yet been uploaded to the system as it customarily takes about 8 weeks before the petition is loaded for review and processing.
President Biden has announced that April is “Second Chance Month” and I believe that I will make the cut for consideration in April of 2023 for clemency based on a showing of remorse, repentance, and rehabilitation, which include pending certification as a Teacher Aide from the U.S. Department of Labor, earning a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree, postdoctoral research in Technology and Enterprise Education, award-winning GED Tutor, Adult Continuing Education (A.C.E.) Instructor for “First Step Act”-approved tutorials in Credit Analytics, Data Science, Small Business Entrepreneurship, Legal Research, Blockchain Technology, Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis, and GED Mathematical Reasoning, as well as appointment as Adjunct Tutor for Introductory Statistics course at Merced College, and recommendation for nomination for a Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (2022).
For clemency lookup, visit: www.justice.gov/pardon/search-pending-clemency-case-files (Anthony Johnson #37002-066).
Education Law Clerk -with Dr. J
In addition to my duties and responsibilities teaching GED and ESL preparation, I am also the USP Atwater Law Clerk and have assisted over 50 inmates in petitioning courts around the country for relief in the form of vacatur of conviction and sentences, reduction of sentences, and restoration of appellate rights nunc pro tunc. Using Miller’s Law (the legal art of persuasion on limitations of information transmission (7+/-2)), I have developed a 7-step process for implementation and drafting of federal post-conviction petitions on behalf of inmates to the court.
My seven-step checklist is as follows:
1. ISSUE: If you have 5 or 6 potential issues to be presented for consideration to the court, pick the best issue. If you will not prevail on the best issue, you surely will not prevail on the others;
2. RULE AND APPLICABLE LAW: Cite the rule of procedure, law, circuit and/or Supreme Court precedent you are relying upon.;
3. APPLICABILITY: Apply the rule and applicable law and court decisions to your own particular case;
4. OFF-THE-RECORD ALLEGATIONS: Post-conviction petitions should only contain off-the-record or “out-of-court” statements that are not part of the court record. Rule 4 of the Rules Governing 2255 Motions clearly requires the court to dismiss the petition “if the files and records of the case conclusively show movant is not entitled to relief”;
5. EXECUTION: Execute the petition with flawless precision;
6. STRATEGIZE LITIGATION: Always anticipate an adverse answer to the petition at the lower court level. If you do not anticipate the adverse decision, you will not be successful on appeal. Issues not presented and preserved below, cannot be reviewed above. (Adversity anticipated, is adversity denied);
7. PSYCHOLOGY OF THE LAW: There is more to post-conviction practice and procedure than just the petition to the court. Do not send micromessages to the apposing party that anxiety has the best of you and that you are only filing to pass what I call the “splatter test” (filing multiple issues to see what sticks).
Anthony Johnson, PhD
EDUCATION AND LEARNING PROFESSIONAL *RECOMMENDED FOR NOMINATION FOR NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMIC SCIENCES (2022)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Christian Education (2022 during incarceration)
Postdoctoral Researcher, Technology & Enterprise Education, University of Bedfordshire (UK) (2022 during incarceration)
Department of Labor, Teacher Aide Certification (2022 during incarceration)
Studied International Business Law, University of Liverpool (UK)
Studied Undergraduate Laws, University of London (UK)
Post-Baccalaureate Diploma, E-Discovery Project Management and Data Science, Bryan University
ThB and ThM, Christian Bible College and Seminary
Professional Mediation Certification, Lakewood College
Professional ADR-Arbitration Certification, Adams State College
ABA Paralegal Certification, Penn State University
Foreign Language Proficiency: Spanish, French & Italian
“E-Discovery Nuts and Bolts” Essentials 20-Book Series
“Post-Pandemic Debt Economics” 9-Book Series (during incarceration 2020-2022)
Post-Pandemic Debt Economics
Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I
Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis II
Small Business Pandemic
The Pandemic Crash of 2029
Economic Disparity-The Pandemic Effect and Racism’s Economic Toll
The Pandemic Divide
Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Prisons, USP Atwater, Education GED/ACE Instructor (2018 – Present)
Founder & CEO: AdjuncTutorials, LLC (Online Comprehensive Learning). Founded as part of PhD studies to provide comprehensive “First Step Act”- approved online tutorials to incarcerated persons, as well as colleges and universities around the world.
Managing Director: Christian Education Ministries. Founded as a faith-based education ministry as part of postdoctoral research, guided by the religious teachings of Jesus on the corporal works of mercy, to provide financial educational assistance in the from of grants to inmates seeking higher education after obtaining a GED or high school equivalency while incarcerated, teach English as a Second Language (ESL) to foreign nationals, mentor entrepreneurship, and answer the challenges of work, wages and the yawning wealth-gap by using Christian education and financial literacy to reduce poverty.
Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis II
Did you miss Carrier Global at $14.78 in April 2020? Microsoft at $139.06 on March 13, 2020? Ring Central at $179.81 on March 13, 2020? Illumina at $239.06 on March 20, 2020? If so, you missed tremendous opportunities to build wealth over time! These opportunities were illuminated in my book, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis,” the debut from my post-pandemic stock analysis series.
If you would like a tutorial on how to analyze stocks using electronic data science and step-by-step easy to use analytics, this book is for you! “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis II” is currently being published and will be available by Labor Day 2021! Post-pandemic day traders are not invited!
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis” by Anthony Johnson on Amazon as a primer so you don’t miss out on tremendous wealth-building opportunities!
Anthony “Dr. J” Johnson is a candidate for a Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Christian Education, studied International Business Law at the University of Liverpool (UK), and earned a post-baccalaureate diploma in E-Discovery Project Management and Data Science from Bryan University.
Visit Anthony “Dr. J” Johnson, Ph.D. on LinkedIn.
DECEMBER 2021 – JUST PUBLISHED!
“Post-Pandemic Debt Economics – 2nd EDITION,” is Anthony’s first of a 10-book of what he has coined his “post-pandemic debt economics” series, which examines the cost of the pandemic that go beyond medical debt, metastasizing from shelter-in-place orders, loss of jobs, cost of testing and treatment, due to the pandemic. This how-to book will illuminate how to eliminate pandemic-related debt and restore your FICO score using credit analytics.
Anthony Johnson is a candidate for a Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Christian Education, studied International Business Law at the University of Liverpool (UK), earned a Diploma in English Common Law at the University of London (UK), and has a graduate diploma in E-Discovery Project Management and Data Science from Bryan University. He is the founder and CEO of AR/VR Learning, a faith-based virtual learning and education technology company founded as part of his Ph.D. studies as a financial literacy project guided by the religious teaching of Jesus on the corporal works of mercy, which include helping youth obtain a GED, teaching ESL to foreign nationals, mentoring entrepreneurship, and answering the challenges of the yawning wealth-gap for the betterment of the world using education, technology, and financial literacy to reduce poverty.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
The “Stock Pic of the Month” for January 2022, based on my recently published book, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I” is: KYNDRYL (KD): $18.10.
Kyndryl is a spinoff from IBM. It spunoff from IBM in December 2021. Kyndryl was IBM’s information technology services unit. The balance sheet states that it has 4,600 clients in 115 countries. Information technology services is a $500 billion market. With the effectuation of this spinoff, Kyndryl can now partner across all cloud services providers and is no longer limited to IBM which will generate cash and stronger profits.
The numbers don’t lie: Of IBM’s $77.15 billion in total revenue in 2019, Kyndryl had $19 billion in sales in 2019-20. My math indicates that equals 24% of IBM’s revenue. As of September 2021, IBM was trading at $136.43. If Kyndryl is responsible for 24% of that stock price, then, if it were to stand alone, it would have a stock price of $32.64.
Kyndryl is currently trading at $18.00 per share. It has room to grow. Remember, as punctuated in Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I, the Penn State study concluded that the largest stock gains for spinoff companies took place not in the first year of the spinoff, but in the second year! That means that you should be strategic in your investment approach and watch the movement of the newly spunoff company for the first year, then, when the second year comes around, make your move!
If you have not already done so, pick up a copy of Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I-THIRD EDITION for more information!
POST-PANDEMIC STOCK ANALYSIS I
Just Published! Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I is part of a two-book training course designed to help non-professional investors develop confidence and skills that enable them to effectively analyze hidden stock market opportunities. Designed especially for novice investors offering a 7-step checklist and proof-of-concept as a powerful tool!
If you are looking for a tutorial on how to analyze stocks using data science and step-by-step easy to use analytics, this book is for you! Post-Pandemic Day Traders are not invited!
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Debt Economics-SECOND EDITION” to get your financial house in order so you can begin to master the art of finding hidden stock market opportunities.
Anthony Johnson is a candidate for a Ph.D. in Christian Education, studied International Business Law at the University of Liverpool (UK), English Common Law at the University of London (UK), and earned a post-baccalaureate diploma in E-Discovery Project Management and Data Science from Bryan University, as well as bachelor’s and master’s degree in Theology from Christian Bible College and Seminary. For more information about Anthony, visit his LinkedIn.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
“Stock Pic of the Month” for February 2022, based on my recently published book, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis II” is: QUALTRICS (XM): $27.06. The EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: SPINOFF.
The Utah-based company, which provides subscription-based software to businesses looking to evaluate their customers’ experiences, was SPUNOFF from German software giant SAP in January 2021. SAP still remains a majority owner of Qualtrics.
THE BALANCE SHEET: Qualtrics has beaten Wall Street revenue targets every quarter since the spinoff, with the largest coming in the fourth quarter 2021, which revenue jumped 48% year over year to $316 million, growth accelerating from 41% rise reported for the third quarter 2021. The company’s annual revenue just crossed $1 billion for the first time, and projects 31% revenue growth for 2022.
REMEMBER THE PENN STATE STUDY: The study concluded the largest gains for spinoff companies occurred in the second year after the spinoff. Qualtrics is now in the second year! Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course for more information!
POST-PANDEMIC STOCK ANALYSIS II
Just Published! Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis II is the second part of the two-book training course designed to help non-professional investors develop confidence and skills that enable them to effectively analyze hidden stock market opportunities. Designed especially for novice investors offering a 7-step checklist as proof-of-concept as a powerful tool!
If you are looking for a tutorial on how to analyze stocks using data science and step-by-step easy to use analytics, this book is for you! Post-Pandemic Day Traders are not invited!
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Debt Economics-SECOND EDITION” to get your financial house in order so you can begin to master the art of finding hidden stock market opportunities!
Anthony Johnson is a candidate for a Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Christian Education, studied International Business Law at the University of Liverpool (UK), English Common Law at the University of London (UK), and earned a post-baccalaureate diploma in E-Discovery Project Management and Data Science from Bryan University. For more information about Anthony, visit his LinkedIn.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
“Stock Pic of the Month” for March 2022, based on my recently published two-book training course, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” is” NUTRIEN (NTR): $27.97 (December 2020). The EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: REGORGANIZATION.
NUTRIEN has reorganized from genetically modified seed manufacturing to include biotechnology, a market projected to grow 7.07% compound annual growth rate between 2019 and 2025, with nearly $90 billion spend in 2018. Nutrien’s biotechnology innovations include seed breeding techniques and tools to modify organisms to affect yield, size, and/or color.
SUPPLY/DEMAND IMBALANCE: Currently, the planet contains 7.6 billion inhabitants, but the population is expected to expand to 9.8 billion by 2050. Farmers are tasked with feeding the world, but increasingly, they need to do so with fewer resources. The good news is that agricultural technology designed to address this growing need is booming. And, the U.S. Department of Agriculture under President Biden, will direct federal conservation payments to farmers who use their fields to capture more carbon, in conjunction with agribusiness firms that have jump-started farm produce carbon-offset credits.
INFLATION: Congress has approved nearly $5.9 trillion in spending in 2020-21. The federal debt rose by $5 trillion between February 2020 and June 2021, to $22.2 trillion. Thus, inflationary pressure is upon us. Even with inflation, stagnation, deflation, war time or peace time, the world will still require one valuable resource: FOOD!
NUTRIEN has nearly tripled in stock price from $27.97 in December 2020 to over $77.00 as of February 2022. I expect continued growth with supply/demand, inflation, and the world continues to need food. Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II” for detailed analysis.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
“Stock Pic of the Month” for April 2022, based on my recently published two-book training course, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” is: SERIES I SAVINGS BONDS or “I-BONDS.”
EVENT: INFLATION. INTEREST RATE INCREASES. SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTIONS AND BOTTLENECKS. TIGHT LABOR MARKETS. STOCK MARKET UNCERTAINTY. SURGE IN OIL AND COMMODITY PRICES. SOARING HOME PRICES. INCREASE IN DEFENSE SPENDING. INSECURITY IN THE WORLD’S FOOD SUPPLY. WAR IN UKRAINE.
In 1996, President Clinton established I-Bonds, guaranteed, inflation-linked securities issued directly by the Treasury to people and companies. Today, I-Bonds pay a healthy 7.12% annual return, adjusted every six months to reflect changes in consumer price inflation. One would be hard pressed to find a better, safer investment in this uncertain environment.
Currently, individual investors are limited to purchasing only $10,000 in I-Bonds a year. (A loophole in the IRS Code allows taxpayers eligible for a federal tax refund to buy an additional $5,000 of I-Bonds, not a bad deal!). I would suggest my readers to diversify your portfolio with a balance of stocks and I-Bonds. Investor interest has ramped up with the rise of inflation. My research has uncovered that over the past three months alone, I-Bond purchases soared to $7.1 billion, compared with an average of $700 million a year during the decade before.
I-Bonds can be used as a hedge to inflation and are superior to other Treasury securities, including the well regarded Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, which have experienced a loss of up to 5% since January 1, 2022 as news of more inflation lifted yields and hammered bond prices.
THE KICKER: I-Bonds can be redeemed at any time after 12 months with a modest penalty, amounting to three months of interest. And, after five years there is no redemption penalty whatsoever!
For more information, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course, by Anthony Johnson at Amazon.com.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
“Stock Pic of the Month” for May 2022, based on my recently published two-book post-pandemic stock analysis training course is: CORTEVA AGRISCIENCE, INC. (CTVA)
EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: SPINOFF from DowDupont in 2019.
Corteva AG is a seed and pesticide make formed from the 2017 merger of Dow Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. The subsequent break-up of that merger has resulted in three new companies: 1) Dow, with $48.8 billion in revenue in 2018; 2) DuPont, with $22.6 billion in revenue in 2018; and 3) Corteva Agriscience with $14.3 billion in revenue in 2018. Corteva’s debut follows Bayer AG’s $63 billion purchase in 2018 of Monsanto, the biggest seed company, and Syngenta AG’s $43 billion sale to China National Chemical Corp., commonly known as ChemChina, in 2017.
PRE-RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE: On February 16, 2022, The Wall Street Journal had reported food-price inflation, in conjunction with increase in seed prices, would constitute a surge in price of crop-seed and pesticide suppliers, like Corteva, which has punctuated that prices it charges farmers for seeds rose 10% in its most recent quarter and its crop-protection products were up 6% compared with the prior year to offset inflation.
POST-RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE: Farmers around the world will continue to struggle as shortages and rising prices take a toll on crop production, and fertilizer prices will continue to surge as the war limits supplies in the roughly $100 billion global seeds market.
POST-SPIN: On June 4, 2019, Corteva began trading on the New York Stock Exchange at $24.81. As of April 29, 2022, Corteva was trading at $57.82, more than double, and with more room to grow due to food-price inflationary forecasts.
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course, for detailed analysis, and remember to analyze recent 10Q, the 10K from 2021 to analyze debt-to-income ratio, cash burn, and free cash flow, and FORM 10 for the SPINOFF DISTRIBUTION at www.sec.gov/EDGAR, before investing.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
“Stock Pic of of the Month” for June 2022, based on my two-book post-pandemic stock analysis training course is:
– ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND (ADM). Stock Price: $42.76 in April 2019.
– EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: RESTRUCTURING in April 2019.
ADM processes crops into fuel and flavorings and has revamped operations after an acquisition spree bulked up its ingredients business. ADM has also invested in flavorings and plant-based proteins. The restructuring has also sought voluntary retirements and layoffs.
ENTER WAR IN UKRAINE: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended two of world’s major grain-producing powers in a region that has become increasingly critical to filling the gap in the shrinking global food supply-chain. ADM has stated it expects the tight supply of crops to continue for the next few years because of drought conditions in South America, a weak Canadian canola crop, and the war in Ukraine.
BALANCE SHEET: ADM posted quarterly earnings of $1.05 billion, or $1.86 per share, compared with $689 million, or $1.22 per share, a year ago. ADM has also reported a 53% profit increase for the 3-month period ending March 31, 2022, outpacing Wall Street’s expectations. Finally, shares of ADM are up more than 30% this year, and have more than doubled in price since the restructuring had begun in 2019.
DIVIDENDS: Dividend-paying stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, in part as investors whipsawed by market volatility have sought out stocks that can offer steady cash returns. In my opinion, ADM fits this profile.
MY TAKE: Higher commodities prices, geopolitical risks, inflated food costs, insecurity in the world’s food supply, in conjunction with strong consumer demand, will continue to boost earnings and profits. In my humble opinion, in light of the current economic downturn, fueled by rising interest rates and accelerating inflation, investors should focus on stocks with dividend yields because dividends are real money-not just figures on a balance sheet. Remember, the balance sheet may have hidden debt, like supply-chain financing, that will not appear as a liability, thus be manipulated! Dividends are real money that is left over after the bills have been paid. As Stacy Abrams, former-gubernatorial candidate of Georgia has stated, “cash is king, but cash flow is queen.” Analyzing the balance sheet for cash flow payable as dividends to investors will save the day in this challenging investment climate.
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course, to learn how to take advantage of extraordinary investment opportunities in these extraordinary times.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH IS “BUFFETT BUYS”
The stock market’s recent spin of topsy-turvyness has investors worried. And they should be. Interest rates will continue to rise to cool inflation. The war in Ukraine rages on with no end in sight. Jobs reports are becoming shaky. Home prices are soaring and that includes rents. So-called “stagflation” (when prices soar and growth slums) is now knocking on the door. There is some good news to report:
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. has used these turbulent times as an opportunity to increase spending on stocks. All you have to do as an astute investor to follow Berkshire is go to www.sec.Berkshire/E.D.G.A.R. and pull what is known as FORM 13-F at the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website. Once you do, here as some of the companies Mr. Buffett has been buying, and you can too:
1. APPLE (AAPL): $145.54 as of May 2022;
2. OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM (OXY): $67.72 as of May 2022;
3. CHEVRON CORP. (CVX): $173.01 as of May 2022;
4. ACTIVISION BLIZZARD (ATVI): $78.00 as of May 2022;
5. HP INC. (HP): $37.71 as of May 2022;
6. CITIGROUP (C): $47.46 as of May 2022;
7. ALLY FINANCIAL (ALLY): $38.73.
Investors often use 13-F’s to gauge how large money managers are playing the market, now you can too! For more information, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book introductory training course, by Anthony Johnson.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
In these turbulent times, investors should look for investment opportunities in companies that pay dividends. I would suggest non-professional investors to look for stocks largely on the basis of dividend yields. Shares of companies paying big dividends to investors have trounced practically everything else so far this year. And I believe the trend will continue.
Dividends are real money-not just figures on a balance sheet. I like to say, “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure, because figures can be manipulated.”
Usually, investors believed that dividend-paying stocks don’t do well in an interest-rate-rising environment, like we are experiencing today. However, I would suggest a different dynamic is at play, with interest rates rising to try to cool inflation. Many dividend-paying stocks are in industries like utilities, telecommunications and consumer staples, which consumers tend to rely on year round, regardless of the economic environment.
The one utility I love is WATER. Water is a vital source for life and a significant risk facing investors in thirsty industries such as food production, mining, apparel manufacturing, and semiconductors. It is also a scant resource: Just 3% of the Earth’s water is fresh. About 2.5%, however, is locked up in polar ice caps, glaciers, the atmosphere, and soil, or is highly polluted or lies too far below the earth’s surface to be extracted at an affordable cost. That leaves just 0.5% of the Earth’s water available as fresh water.
My top three water companies are:
1. AMERICAN WATER WORKS (AWK): $130.88 as of June 14, 2022;
2. ROPER TECHNOLOGIES (ROP)(which makes smart water meters for utilities): $372.29 as of June 14, 2022;
3. XYLEM (XYL)(which provides technology for water companies): $73.07 as of June 14, 2022.
For more information, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book introductory training course for non-professional investors, by Anthony Johnson. Available at Amazon.com.
SVERIGES RIKSBANK NOBEL PRIZE IN
RECOMMENDATION FOR NOMINATION (2022)
Recommendation to Nominate: Anthony Johnson
I would like to take a moment to celebrate a wonderful achievement! I have been recommended for nomination for the Sveriges Riksbank Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, also known as the “Nobel Prize in Economics!” When Alfred Nobel, the Swedish millionaire died in 1896, he left his fortune to finance awards for “those who, during the preceding year, shall have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind.” His will called for recognition of those who made extraordinary contributions to physics, chemistry, medicine, economics, and literature. I am proud and humble to have been considered for nomination to such an honorable award for writing my 9-book “post-pandemic economics” series, while incarcerated, on lockdown in a federal prison, during the eye of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Although I will not know whether I have actually won the prize until October 2023, it sure feels good to be recommended for consideration. Here is a brief description of the process involved in choosing th economic sciences laureates:
1. SEPTEMBER: Nomination invitations sent out.
2. FEBRUARY: January 31, deadline for submissions of nominations.
3. MARCH-MAY: Consultation with experts.
4. JUNE-AUGUST: Writing report with recommendations.
5. SEPTEMBER: Academy gets report on final candidates.
6. OCTOBER: After a majority vote the prize is announced and economic sciences laureates are chosen.
7. DECEMBER: Nobel Prize Award Ceremony in Stockholm Sweden.
I will keep my readers up to date on the process and upload a posting in October-November 2023, confirming any award!
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
The “Stock Pic of the Month” for September 2002, is KELLOGG CO. (K) – $75.22 July 2022. EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: SPINOFF.
In June of 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported a proposed spinoff opportunity for KELLOGG CO. (K). The company said it plans to break up its business into three companies: 1) Global Snacking Co.; 2) North American Cereal Co.; and 3) Plant-Based Foods Co. In doing so, Kellogg is looking to jump-start its larger, faster-growing snacks business which had revenue of $1.98 billion in 2021.
Kellogg’s plant-based foods business had an estimated $340 million in net sales in 2021, and as a stand-alone enterprise will first aim to expand in North America and grow globally organically.
The North America cereal business had about $2.4 billion in sales in 2021, while undergoing efforts to reverse sales declines and boost profit margins.
MY TAKE: The largest of the three planned newly spun out companies would be the global snacks business, which includes brands like Pringles Potato Chips, Cheez-Its snack cheese bites, and long-time breakfast favorites like Eggo waffles. The global snacks business would also include Kellogg’s fast-growing noodle business in developing countries like Africa, as well as cereal sales overseas.
POST-PANDEMIC ANALYSIS: Remember to check Kellogg’s most recently filed FORM 10 for information regarding the proposed spinoff distribution. Visit www.sec.gov/EDGAR, put in the company symbol for Kellogg which is (K), and begin your credit analytics of the balance sheet and all the other metrics, including dividend yields, as outlined in “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” my two-book training course for non-professional investors.
You have time. Kellogg announced it expects to complete the spinoff by the end of 2023, with the North America cereal business potentially separating first, followed by the plant-based foods business as the third company due to its contemplating the sale of the plant-based foods unit, which is predominantly composed of the MorningStar Farms brand.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
$51.51 – 10/15/2022
EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: REORGANIZATION
My “Stock Pic of the Month” for October 2022 is BLOCK (SQ). Cash Apps are becoming ubiquitous these days. Everyone in prison uses them. Folks use them in the world to send money on a peer-to-peer basis. Block, the provider of Cash App and Square merchant payments, has reorganized itself to provide an important cash inflow to the company by linking a bank account, mobile depositing a check, bringing paper money to a place such a Walmart that partners with Cash App, or direct-deposit from a paycheck!
Cash App’s inflow was a record $52 billion in the third quarter of 2022, up 19% from the third quarter 2021. In fact, Cash App’s gross profit has shown a steady and consistent increase each quarter since late 2019 from about $100 million to almost $900 third quarter 2022.
Direct deposit will prove to be a significant method of gross profit moving forward representing regular cash inflow comparable to how workers would use a traditional bank account, without interest payments (Cash App does not pay interest on deposits!).
Cash App now offers a Cash App Card for purchases, paying for things at merchants via Cash App, trading stocks, or buying cryptocurrency. Block now provides the basics such as account and routing numbers instantly to users who order a Cash App Card to make it easier to start using direct deposit. About half of cash inflows in the third quarter of 2022 were from Cash App Card users.
Remember to follow your checklist before investing in Block. Check the P/E Ratio, book value, and free cash flow, as well as dividend distributions. Conclude your research by opening a Cash App Card and account to test the ease of use, which is what lures people to regularly put their paychecks into the Cash App experience, which includes peer-to-peer money transfers, direct deposit, a debit card with bank account and routing number, and stock market investing capability, which should be your deciding factor as to its durability in the post-pandemic investment climate.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: (POTENTIAL SPINOFF OF GRAIL, INC.)
My Stock Pic of the Month for November 2022 is ILLUMINA (ILMN). Illumina makes the gene-sequencing machines that its Grail unit and its rivals including Exact Sciences Corp., Freenome Holdings, Inc., and Guardant Health, Inc., use to process blood tests, known as “liquid biopsies,” and can also be used to augment the few established screening tools, such as mammograms for breast cancer and colonoscopies for colorectal cancer. The machines can also become sentinels for other tumor types that lack validated screens, and is estimated to eventually generate $50 in annual sales.
I. LIMITED BACKGROUND
Illumina founded Grail in 2015 and spun it off in 2016 so that it could raise more money for studies. Grail ultimately raised $1.9 billion in capital from investors including Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. Illumina maintained a 12% stake. With a commercially viable product nearly in hand in September of 2020, Grail was exploring an IPO. Seeking opportunity, Illumina made an $8 billion offer to reacquire Grail.
II. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
Not so fast. The proposed acquisition attracted regulatory scrutiny and the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) sued Illumina and Grail to block the acquisition, arguing that it would “lessen competition in the U.S. multi-cancer early detection (“MCED”) test market by diminishing innovation and potentially increasing prices.
Illumina promised the FTC it wouldn’t thwart Grail’s potential competitors and would give its clinical oncology customers contractual guarantees of “equal and fair access.” The FTC wasn’t satisfied and has asked a federal judge overseeing the case to dismiss its complaint in June 2021, but it is still alive as an administrative proceeding.
The FTC is also planning to let European regulators run out the clock on the deal, which had to be completed by December 20, 2021, under the terms agreed to by Illumina and Grail. Illumina is challenging the EU’s Article 22, an obscure provision in its competitive rules on the grounds that the EU has no jurisdiction because Grail has no business in Europe and the deal is between two American companies.
Frustrated by the entanglements, Illumina and Grail closed the deal in August 2021 notwithstanding the risk it could be undone if it loses in U.S. or European courts. In September 2021, the FTC held its own administrative trial, which Illumina is likely to lose. No word on the results to date, but unsurprisingly, the FTC has a nearly perfect record before its own administrative judges.
Illumina plans to appeal any adverse FTC ruling in federal court where it seems likely to prevail because the U.S. government hasn’t successfully challenged in court a vertical merger, that is, a combination of noncompeting businesses that operate in different parts of the supply-chain, since 1972. And, because of the legal snags, Illumina has stated that it does not plan to fully integrate Grail into its business until it clears legal hurdles in Europe, thereby saving time and money, but adversely costing lives.
As for appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court, the high court likely wouldn’t hear this case until 2025, so Illumina faces the risk that the deal could be blocked for years, thus, its exploration of options for Grail that include a divestiture, like a spinoff.
Nonprofessional investors should keep their eye on Illumina and any news on its Grail unit divestiture as a stand-alone company. Genetic testing does more than find disease: It will tell you what you’re susceptible to. Even for infectious disease, genomics will help you identify the pathogen that’s causing the disease. It will also help you understand the impact that that pathogen is likely to have on you. For example, two people can get COVID-19. For one it will be fatal. For the other it will not. A lot has to do with your genome!
I had picked Illumina in March of 2020 due it being one of the only biotechnology companies to detect COVID-19 in late 2019, before it was declared a national emergency by the WHO. On March 13, 2020, Illumina was trading at $239.06. It quickly more than doubled in price in less than a year to $504.76 on February 13-14, 2021. Since then, it has done a stock split, 2-for-1, and is now trading at $242.74 as of November 12-13, 2022. With a planned divestiture of Grail to eliminate any further legal wrangling, I believe Grail, as a spinoff, and Illumina, its parent, will both perform extremely well in the coming months!
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
Iridium Communications, Inc. (IRDM)
Stock Price: $52.40 – 11/26/2022
Event: Bankruptcy, Merger, Reorganization
My “stock pic of the month” for December 2022 is Iridium. Iridium is a low-earth satellite telecommunications provider orbiting in what is called “low earth orbit,” which is up to 1,200 miles high. Low earth orbit satellites circle the planet in about 100 minutes, so any one satellite might be visible to ground observers for as few as seven minutes.
In 1990, Motorola introduced Iridium, their satellite communications company with worldwide coverage for their satellite phone service.
In 1998, after spending more than $5 billion, Iridium launches with 66 satellites circling earth, not only in low earth orbit, but also in “polar orbit” (in line with the north-south longitude of the planet). (I do not believe Iridium has any satellites in geostationary orbit, which is up to 22,000 miles above the earth)
In 1999, Iridium declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, one of the largest in the U.S. at that time.
2000: The U.S. Government extends Iridium’s satellite service a lifeline by offering a $72 million contract for two years of service, which saved Iridium from being decommissioned by a matter of days.
2001: A group of private investors buy Iridium out of bankruptcy for $25 million.
2008: Iridium was acquired and went public via S.P.A.C merger.
II. IRIDIUM’S APPEAL
Iridium has undergone three extraordinary corporate events over the past 20 years, with the most recent event constituting a restructuring / reorganization. At the time of its initial launch, Iridium was expensive and slow, with service mostly for the U.S. military, airplanes, freight, cruise ships, and oil rigs in the north Atlantic.
Now, Iridium has reorganized its network of satellites for use in the so-called “Internet of Things,” connecting access to autonomous cars, homes, business, and the all-important and ubiquitous smartphone. Iridium has amassed licenses in many countries to transmit data over frequencies that are considered better suited for reaching smartphones, tablets, computers, and cars. But sending and receiving text messages still poses a challenge due to technical limitations.
Enter the reorganization, Iridium announced early this year that it had an agreement to develop its technology for us in smartphones for transmission of data. It has partnerships with mobile carriers around the world. (Check out the prospectus at www.sec.gov/edgar -IRDM) And, several industry executives say future satellite service could be offered as an add-on subscription that smartphone makers or cellphone carriers charge. (Note: Appel’s iPhone 14 offers satellite connection that lets users send emergency text messages as a free service)
Finally, industry executives at New Street Research estimate that a “seamless” satellite-to-phone service with voice and data would be worth as much as $20 billion in the U.S., and many times that around the world. With Apple, a $2 trillion company in the game, the opportunity could be massive!
III. MY TAKE
Do your own research! Value Iridium based on cash flows and expected future cash flows, check book valve, pie ratio, and follow the checklist. Remember, in this very volatile investing climate, be sure to check out Iridium’s dividend distribution history. I have had my eye on Iridium since December of 2018 when the stock price was at $18.45, ten years after it went public via SPAC in 2008. In August 2019, Iridium had risen to $22.58. In December 2020: $39.33. December 2021: $41.29. As of November 26th, 2022: $52.40.
Iridium has almost tripled in stock price over the past 4 years! I believe there is a tremendous growth opportunity, but you must value the company correctly. If you do, 90% of the time, the market will concur with your decision-making. Have patience! Give yourself 2-3 years time for the market to properly value Iridium. It may take a few more years for technology to fully embrace the importance and support the transition to seamless coverage via satellite communication in smartphones. Have patience and the market will shine kindly on you.
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course for more information!
MISSED PICS 2020-2022
HAPPY NEW YEAR! The 2020-2022 investment climate was a whirlwind-topsyturvy-to say the least! Inflation fears; a bull-to-bear market in stocks; recession knocking at the door; war in Ukraine; interest rate hikes; the collapse of FTX, and the crypto winter. What else could go wrong?
Notwithstanding all of the above, there were some bright spots in the market… I missed them! My goal is to indefatigably research companies to find value in the businesses based on cash flows and expected cash flows, and then, buy them at a discount to what the cash flows are worth. Only then could I, in good conscience, recommend a company as my “Stock Pic of the Month.” Buying the cheapest stocks still works, even in a bear market or challenging investment climate.
I could not properly analyze the balance sheet of the following companies; therefore, they were not chosen as a “Stock Pic of the Month,” even though I had my radar on them. I like to remain discipline and follow my checklist before making a recommendation. Because I could not properly vet these companies, I missed these opportunities in 2020-2022. Let’s take a look at what I missed:
1. IBM: SPINOFF of services unit; 09/17/2021. Stock price $136.43. December 2022 @ $148.67
2. American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): REORGANIZED from purchasing foreclosed homes to flip & sell-to-rent homes. Stock price $27.46 on 06/08/2020. $42.27 on 08/06/2021.
3. Invitation Homes (INVH). REORGANIZED. Same investment thesis. Stock price $29.20 on 06/08/2020. $40.43 on 08/06/2021.
4. Marathon Petroleum (MPC). SPINOFF of gas station operation Speedway. Stock price $43.16 on 01/30/2021 (post-spin). $125.20 on 11/26/2022.
5. Merck & Co. (MRK). SPINOFF of $6.5 billion in products in first half of 2021. Stock price $78.60 on 07/3/2021 (post-spin). $107.50 on 11/26/2022.
6. Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL). SPINOFF of $50 billion VMWare stake. Stock price $57.80 on 06/24/2020. $112.98 on 10/22/2021.
7. CVS Health Corp. (CVS). Judge approved CVS-Aetna MERGER. $60.28 on 09/05/2019. $102.58 on 12/03/201.
8. Centene Corp. (CNC). MERGER deal with Magellan Health. Stock price $61.51 on 01/24/2021. $85.79 on 12/03/2022.
9. Sempra Energy (SRE). REORGANIZATION to include green energy. Stock price $127.45 on 05/20/2019. $165.93 on 12/03/2022.
10. On Semi (ON). REORGANIZED into using older manufacturing techniques to make microchips. Stock price $59.13 on 11/06/2021. $73.04 on 12/03/2022.
11. IPG Photonics (IPGP). REORGANIZED use of lasers in industrial applications, such as welding, 3-D printing, for spacecrafts, homes, airplanes, race cars, bridges. Stock price $113.29 on 12/2018. $172.14 on 12/2021.
12. Amgen (AMGN). MERGER of pharmaceuticals with biotechs to promote growth in healthcare sector. Stock price $182.24 on 01/13/2020. $285.51 on 12/03/2022.
13. Wabtec (WAB). REORGANIZED from digital electronics to autonomous train manufacturing. Stock price $53.52 on 03/13/2020. $103.38 on 12/03/2022.
14. Cintas (CTAS). REORGANIZED from uniform rental services company to cleaning, first aid, fire extinguishers, and safety training. Stock price $225.49 on 03/13/2020. $462.53 on 12/03/2022.
PANDEMIC PICS 2020-2022
HAPPY NEW YEAR! Let’s take a moment to recapitulate my so-called “pandemic pics” I had suggested in my two-book training course, “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” in 2020 during the nadir of the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, I like to focus my stock analysis on “extraordinary corporate events,” to wit: SPINOFFS, RESTRUCTURINGS, REORGANIZATIONS, MERGERS, and BANKRUPTCY CHAPTER 11 FILINGS.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic presented a unique opportunity, a once-in-a-lifetime event, which I had coined “an extraordinary event that will affect corporations.” Based on that rare opportunity, my focus was on companies that were pandemic-related, with strong balance sheets, free cash flow, solid earnings potential, and could experience growth due to the pandemic as a catalyst.
Most, if not all, of the below-listed companies were recommended in my books. These stocks should have performed quite well. Remember to give the market 2-5 years to conduct a proper analysis using the “STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS” found in the company’s 10K and 10Q financial filings. It may take the market some time to drill down the numbers to become aware of a company’s cash-generating ability, thus, patience is prudent. It has been two years, so let’s take a look at how my pandemic pics have panned out:
1. AUTOZONE (AZO): Coronavirus economy; do-it-yourself customers. $1.166.71 on 09/23/2020 – $2,571.59 as of 12/2022.
2. TJ MAXX (TJX): Eschews e-commerce during pandemic. $37.37 on 03/21/2020 – $80.19 as of 12/2022.
3. ROSS STORES (ROST): Same investment thesis as TJX. $63.90 on 03/21/2020 – $119.00 as of 12/2022.
4. BURLINGTON STORES (BURL): Same investment thesis as TJX and ROST. $138.01 on 03/21/2020 – $200.21 as of 12/2022.
5. LAB CORPORATION OF AMERICA (LH): Reorganized from diagnostics and drug development to PCR COVID-19 testing; involved in the development of nearly all of the top-selling pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products, including 85% of all drugs approved by the FDA in 2020; administered 500 million diagnostic tests per year before pandemic. $136.99 on 03/13/2020 – $241.57 as of 12/2022.
6. *MODERNA (MRNA): Biotech subsidiary of British American Tobacco (BAT) and had begun to work on transition to developing a vaccine for COVID-19 in April of 2020. At that time, Moderna had not developed any drugs; had no drugs on the market; had no revenue or sales. But had a $30 billion valuation. $31.66 on 04/10/2020 – $379.63 as of 11/27/2021.
7. BIONTECH (BNTX): Merger with Pfizer to develop mRNA technology to provide twofold immunity against coronavirus. $28.55 on 03/13/2020 – $281.96 on 07/26/2021 with a stock split to $154.85 in November 2022.
8. ABBOTT LABS (ABT): Transmitted from traditional blood testing for disease prevention to rapid at-home antigen test for COVID-19. $74.74 on 03/13/2020 – $108.09 as of 12/2022.
9. REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS (REGN): Sought FDA emergency use authorization for antibody drug REGEN-COV, on top of steroid DEXAMETHASONE, to cut risk of death for sickest COVID-19 patients. $431.89 on 03/13/2020 – $766.39 as of 12/2022.
10. GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD): Developed REMDESIVIR to treat COVID-19 patients, as an antiviral; had been working with U.S. Government since 2014 to investigate remdesivir’s effectiveness against coronaviruses. $68.58 on 03/13/2020 – $89.03 as of 12/2022.
11. CRISPr THERAPEUTICS (CRSPR): Developed CRISPr CAS-9 gene-editing technology to manipulate genes to prevent heart disease and illnesses. $28.57 on 12/208 – $75.78 as of 12/2021.
*I WOULD NOT HAVE PURCHASED SHARES OF MODERNA BECAUSE PRIOR TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, THE COMPANY HAD NO DRUGS ON THE MARKET, NO REVENUE, NO SALES, NO “STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS” TO REPORT, AND NO GUARANTEE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN DEVELOPING A VACCINE FOR COVID-19 WITH FDA APPROVAL.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
HAPPY NEW YEAR! My “Stock Pic of the Month” for January 2023 is:
NU HOLDINGS (NU): $3.89 as of 12/2022
EVENT: “BUFFET BUY” (Form 13-F)
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has invested $1.5 billion in NU Holdings, an attractive fintech company, since the fourth quarter of 2021, on the heels of NU’s IPO. I believe this “Buffett Buy” is significant because Berkshire rarely buys IPO stocks.
Although shares have fallen about half since NU’s 2021 IPO, investors, like you and I, should pay particular attention. Here’s why:
NU lets users in Brazil, Mexico, and Columbia handle digital money transfers with their phones and sells investment products and life insurance. Keep in mind that Buffett likes to focus on well-managed companies that have a strong franchise, brand name, or market niche. In addition, he likes businesses that are easy to understand, generates lots of cash, and have an attractive discount to current value. You may do your own research to vet Buffett, or pull Form 13-F at www.sec.gov to confirm Berkshire’s thesis on NU and check out NU’s “STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS” found in its 10K and 10Q financial filings. You would want to be sure of NU’s cash generating ability, because cash, as opposed to reported earnings, can be used to pay dividends, buy back stock, pay down debt, finance new opportunities, or make acquisitions into other Latin American countries.
With 186 million people in Brazil, 108 million in Mexico, and 46 million in Columbia, the growth potential is outstanding! Think of NU Holdings as equivalent to Block’s $CASH APP growth trajectory in North America, with the same investment thesis and characteristics as punctuated in my “Stock Pic of the Month” for “Block” posted for 10/2022.
For more information on post-pandemic stock analysis, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II.”
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (GEHC)
EVENT: SPINOFF: $60.49 per share post-spin – January 3, 2023
My “Stock Pic of the Month” for February 2023 is “GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES, INC.” I have been monitoring GE since its massive restructuring had metastasized in 2017-18 under new CEO Larry Culp. I was familiar with Larry Culp from days as CEO of Danaher, Corp., and knew he was a turnaround expert hired to right GE’s ship. His efforts are not bearing fruit five years later with the break up of GE into three divisions: GE HealthCare; GE Vernova (a portfolio of energy businesses which will include natural gas-powered turbines and wind turbines, and will split in early 2014); and GE Aerospace.
My research has uncovered that an analysis of recent healthcare breakups by Houlihan Lokey found that from 2019 to 2022, the sector tied for first place with information technology. Another study conducted by Morgan Stanley of medical technology spinoffs since 2000 showed they outperformed the S&P 500 by about 20% in their first year as independent listed companies. The Edge Group’s 20 year study of large-cap spinoffs concluded that newly spinoff stocks dropped on average of 7% in their first 30 days, but returned 22% over a 2-year period post-spin.
Finally, remember the Penn State study covering a 20-year period ending in 1998 that punctuated that stocks of spinoff companies outperformed their industry peers and the S&P 500 by about 10% per year in the first three years of independence.
The case for continued growth for GE HealthCare as a stand-alone company is great due to rising healthcare demand which should result in expansion of its ultrasound business, while its imaging and patient-care solutions division, with low margins, could also be expanded with management focused on just healthcare. Check out the management team’s bona fides at www.sec.gov/EDGAR, pull the prospectus.
For more information about how to properly analyze a spinoff opportunity, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” by Anthony Johnson.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
CONSTELLATION CORP. (CEG)
CORPORATE EVENT: SPINOFF
$59.21- May 1, 2022 (post-spin)
My “Stock Pic of the Month” for March 2023 is CONSTELLATION CORP. In February of 2022, Exelon Corp. completed its spinoff of its power-generation business as a stand-alone company. The stand alone company, Constellation, operates the nation’s largest fleet of nuclear-power plants and has plans for further growth by acquisition and novel ways to use nuclear power to produce green hydrogen, which is made using carbon-free energy to strip hydrogen atoms from water molecules through a process called electrolysis. This will be a significant break-through for the energy sector because hydrogen doesn’t emit carbon when burned, and it has long been touted as a fuel with the potential to help eliminate emissions from vehicles, power plants and heavy industry.
State and federal policy makers increasing view nuclear energy as a way to help move the needle to achieving ambitious goals of decarbonization of the power grid in the coming decades. The Biden administration has targeted a carbon-free grid by 2023. We cannot have a carbon-free grid without the use of alternative energy sources to power an already oversaturated grid with the increase of the electrification of everything and no power sources to supply demand.
Unlike wind and solar farms, whose output depends on weather and time of day, nuclear plants produce carbon-free electricity around the clock and could help bolster power supplies as more intermittent resources come online. There has to be a way to transition and match consumption of energy with power, and if nuclear energy is missing from the equation, it becomes very difficult to achieve the goal of a carbon-free grid.
The bipartisan infrastructure bill passed by Congress in 2021 included $6 billion to support existing nuclear plants, and on the heels of the legislation Constellation outlined a plan to manage costs and boost output from its nuclear operations, which span IL, PA, MD, NJ, and NY and expand its retail electricity business serving commercial and industrial power users, while investing in emerging technologies, like green hydrogen, as cited above.
Be sure to pull FORM 4 for spinoffs at www.sec.gov/EDGAR, and read the prospectus, 10Q and 10k. Also, drill down into the numbers by reading the “Statement of Cash Flows” and check dividend distributions. Finally, remember spinoffs outperform the overall market by 10% per year in the first three years of independence.
For more information on how to properly evaluate spinoffs and other extraordinary corporate events, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II.”
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
GENERAC HOLDINGS, INC. (GNRC)
$102.87 ON 11/19-20/2022
EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: REORGANIZATION
My “Stock Pic of the Month” for April 2023 is GENERAC HOLDINGS, INC. (GNRC). Generac said its dealers have been struggling to keep up with orders for backup generators, which resulted in the company to lower its sales forecast in 2022, while customers wait for installations. As the sales leader in backup generators, Generac relies on its 8,500 independent electrical contractors in North America who are authorized to sell and install its generators in homes and businesses. Demand for Generac’s products has been rising in recent years due to floods, hurricanes, wildfires, and the transition to green energy, including EV’s.
Generac’s overall sales grew by 50% in 2021 to $3.7 billion. Through the first nine months of 2022, sales rose 32% higher than the same period a year earlier. Figures are not yet available for the first quarter of 2023 as of this posting. The company had expected sales to grow by 36% to 40% in 2022 but lowered that range in the fall of 2022 to 22% to 24% over 2021. Shares of Generac were down 30% in October 2022 to $101.40 per share. Shares are currently hovering at around $115 per share as of March 2023.
Summer is around the corner and folks will begin to prepare by buying an emergency backup generator. Hurricane season runs from May to November, so the time is now for Generac. In the spring of 2022, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warned that two-thirds of the U.S. could experience blackouts. That prediction bodes well for this year as well. Blackouts will continue to plague the U.S. and developing nations as we transition to green energy. From California to Texas, electric grid operators are warning that power-generating capacity is struggling to keep up with demand, a gap that could lead to rolling blackouts during heat waves or other peak periods.
For more information, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course. Be sure to analyze Generac’s 10K, 10Q, “Statement of Cash Flows” and the all-important “operating income” to monitor sales, income, and revenue.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG)
$34.38 – 04/06/2023
EVENT: REORGANIZATION (MANAGEMENT INNOVATION)
My “Stock Pic of the Month” for May 2023 is CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG). In 2020, during the nadir of the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the students in my “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis” course, named Tong Moua, once stated, “You know what Mr. Johnson, food company stocks should be checked out because no matter what is happening in the world, we all gotta eat.” Truer words have never been spoken! Mr. Tong was quite prescient in his analysis and since that time I have recommended companies such as Nutrien, Archer-Daniels-Midland, and Bunge, to name a few. Enter Conagra Brands.
Conagra Brands is the maker of Marie Callender’s pies and Orville Redenbacher’s popcorn and has illuminated that organic sales in its fiscal third quarter rose 6.1%. Adjusted gross margins were up more than 4 percentage points from a year earlier to 28.1%. It now expects organic sales to grow by 7% to 7.5% compared with the 7% to 8% it forecast last quarter. 6% sales growth is damn good for a food company-especially by pre-pandemic standards of evaluation. Conagra also reported its total retail sales in the quarter were up nearly 25% from three years earlier.
The food sector has long been a bastion and safe haven for investors. The sector includes agriculture, manufacturing, packaged goods and grocers, and has outperformed stock averages. Food companies have benefited from three factors: drought, war in Ukraine, and COVID. Drought is not restricted to the U.S. China is suffering, and half of Europe is drier than it has been for centuries. ABC News’ David Muir has reported on the drought in Sudan. Reduced food supply means higher prices, which, for many food businesses should mean higher profits. The big question, for my analysis, is whether food companies will continue to benefit from prices.
Food stocks can provide a hedge against inflation. And properly chosen, food stocks add stability to a portfolio-especially the big manufacturers with powerful brands, which provide a moat against competitors. My analysis led me to focus in and drill down into the numbers for Conagra Brands because its long-term sales outlook based on its strong record under its current management of innovation, keeps its brands relevant to consumer tastes. I consider the “management of innovation” a revolving reorganization because, for example, the company is rolling out new products such as no-sugar added frozen apple pies and crustless, low-carb frozen pizzas. It is also introducing canned, Wendy’s-branded chili, which will hit stores in May 2023.
Finally, Conagra is one of the cheaper food stocks in the market currently trading at a P/E of 13.7 times forward earnings. Compare that to Campbell Soup at 17.9; General Mills at 19.5; and Mondelez International at 22, and you have a bargain! Don’t forget to check free cash flow, “Statement of Cash Flows” and operating earnings for a more concise return on investment.
Pick up a copy of Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II, the two-book training manual, for the 7-step checklist.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
Investing in bonds can provide a tax-advantage, income stream in retirement. The challenge is to learn how they work so that you can incorporate them into your overall investment strategy.
In buying a bond, an investor (you) agree to lend money to a government, company, or other entity, in exchange for regular interest payments over a period of time. The amount of payments and duration will vary depending on bond types. The face value of the bond, or principal, is then returned to the investor at the end of the term, or what is called “maturity.” So, to put a bow around this, if you were to invest $10,000, at 3%, over a ten-year period, the bond issuer (corporate or municipal) would pay you the 3% ($300) interest payment, per month or year, (depending on the bond issuance), for ten years, and you would receive your initial $10,000 investment at the end of the ten-year term.
The goal of buying a bond is not to get rich quick vis-a-vis the stock counterpart via “day trading.” The mind-set should be to use bonds to receive a steady income.
If a bond issuer can’t pay the money back, you, the investor, may forfeit your original investment. Riskier bonds tend to pay higher interest rates to compensate investors for the possibility that you may very well indeed lose out on future interest and principal payments. (These high-risk, high-yield bonds are also known as “junk-bonds”). And, you may also lose money on them if you sell them before maturity. (Meaning if you sell them before the contract expires between you and the bond issuer). I wanted to illuminate that risk because things change. The interest-rate environment will change over time. Your cash needs may change due to a family emergency, health concerns, or other retirement contingencies. And then, all of a sudden, you will have to “call” the bond before maturity. There is also the risk of venturing into lower-quality bonds without a full understanding.
All bonds may be callable, meaning that the entities that issued them had the option to repay the principal early and skip any future interest payments.
To offset some of the risks punctuated herein, assemble what is called a bond ladder, which is a collection of bonds that would mature at different times, in line with your future cash needs. That way, you have built-in protection against calling of bonds, versatility, and an income stream that won’t be subject to the normal disruption of the geopolitical landscape.
For more information, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course at www.amazon.com.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
LEAVE SOME ASSETS ON THE SIDELINES
I’ve been in transit over the past few months and have not had the opportunity to keep up with the market. So, for July 2023, I have no “Stock Pic of the Month” to report. I am disciplined enough to remain on the sidelines without the opportunity to spot any extraordinary corporate event, and you should too!
Remember, leaving some of your assets on the sidelines (i.e., cash out of the stock and option market) should be part of your overall investment strategy. You should not be pressed to pick a stock to invest in just for the sake of doing so. In fact, no matter how many different extraordinary corporate events you watch, investing at the right time, with assets you can afford to deploy, will be healthy for your diversification of assets. As long as you continue to do your own research, follow the 7-step checklist, and remain discipline, a strategy of owning a handful of favorite event situations should yield tremendous results without being pressed to do more than necessary.
I’m getting adjusted to my new surroundings and my Wall Street Journal subscription should kick-in in August. Until then, enjoy your summer, with an eye on events as you travel for vacation, summer school, or stay-cation at home!
Pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course, by Anthony Johnson, at www.Amazon.com. Also, stay tuned for my “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis Workbook Tutorials,” coming soon!
WELCOME TO AT!
As part of Dr. J’s Capstone Research Project and PhD dissertation, AdjuncTutorials, LLC (“AT”), was founded as a faith-based online comprehensive learning tutorial for incarcerated persons based on Judeo-Christian teaching philosophy. The platform has expanded to K-12 students offering a learning platform for online education tutorials in literacy, GED Mathematical Reasoning Exam Prep, and ESL (English as a Second Language) to foreign nationals. The platform will also offer Adult Continuing Education tutorials in Small Business Entrepreneurship, Data Analytics, Credit Analytics, Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis, Foreclosure Mediation, Introductory Statistics, Finite Mathematics, Alternative Dispute Resolution (“ADR”), as well as tutorials for college/university students around the world.
Stay tuned for more information about AdjuncTutorials as we build our web page!
*AdjuncTutorials, LLC logo with “three green leaves” fallen from the tree of knowledge of good and evil constitute: 1) Man’s attempt to govern apart from God; 2) Man must live by faith in God’s Word; and 3) Man’s rejection of self-sufficiency and moral judgment.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
NVIDIA (NVDA): $457.78 on 08/22/2023
EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: REORGANIZATION
My “Stock Pic of the Month” for August 2023 is graphic chip maker, NVIDIA. NVIDIA is at the heart of of the artificial-intelligence (“AI”) arms race, and is widely known for making chips for gaming technology. It has restructured its focus on graphic chip technology for AI computing power and accounts for more than 70% of AI chip sales. This pick is a long-term stock play as AI technology will metamorphose into a fundamental change in enterprise computing power. The new iteration of graphic chips for generative AI come to market every 6 months. The stock trades in 440 ETS’s (Exchange Traded Funds) and companies are doubling and tripling their orders as the chips are behind many popular AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
The buzz around the technology has made NVIDIA a $1 trillion company this year, with the stock more than tripling. Wall Street analysts have a price target of $640.71, according to FactSet, with the stock trading at 35 times earnings over the past 12 months. (I don’t rely on analysts forecasts as they can be misleading at times)
At over $400 per share, you may want to consider buying partial shares, or look into LEAPS, (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities) aka “long-term options,” as a stock option play to earn a tremendous return because generative AI will continue to change the way we work, learn, and play.
Don’t forget to do your own work and develop a checklist to analyze the company’s balance sheet, P/E ratio, free cash flow, and book value. To learn how to develop a checklist, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course, by Anthony Johnson.
STOCK PIC OF THE MONTH
CATERPILLAR (CAT) (SEPTEMBER 2023):
($140.36 on April 9, 2019)
($272.56 on Aug. 26, 2023)
EXTRAORDINARY CORPORATE EVENT: REORGANIZATION
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER! I have been researching CAT and the effects of the reorganization event since uncovering it on April 9, 2019, in The Wall Street Journal. CAT has reorganized its way of doing business with the sale of its excavators, construction, and mining equipment and heavy machinery. It had announced that it intends connect its machinery to the cloud, which in turn alerts miners and builders when they need to tune-up or recalibrate equipment. The monitoring services added sales of parts and repairs that has generated a steadier revenue stream than sales of new equipment, which is typically cyclical.
Also, the passage of the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill in August of 2021, has had a positive impact on CAT with $500 billion of new spending over 10 years. This should continue to benefit CAT magnificently as it has overcome supply-chain challenges and the COVID-19 pandemic, while addressing energy needs, climate change, and other public works.
Since April 2019, the stock has a monthly moving average of $2.54. Since the passage of the infrastructure bill, the monthly moving average has remained steady at $2.81 per month. The combined monthly moving average pre-and-post-infrastructure bill is $2.68 per month… steady as she goes! The stock has historically traded in a wide valuation band of anywhere from 10-30 times forward earnings, so its current multiple of 17 in 2023 doesn’t look unreasonable given its strong prospects.
Be sure to do your own work and analyze CAT’s 10K, 10Q, “Statement of Cash Flow” and the all-important “Operating Income” to monitor sales, income, and revenue.
For more information, pick up a copy of “Post-Pandemic Stock Analysis I & II,” the two-book training course, by Anthony Johnson.
• Date of Birth: 09/16/1964 (58 years old)
• Gender: Male
• Marital Status: Divorced
• Sexual Orientation: Straight
• Race: Black or African American / Multi-Racial
• Ethnicity: Not Hispanic or Latino
• Eye Color: Brown
• Hair Color: Black
• Height: 6 ft. 2 in.
• Body Type: Athletic
• Hometown: Jacksonville, Florida (USA)
• Spoken Languages: English, Spanish, French, Italian
• Religion: Christian
• Astrological Sign: Virgo
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• Incarcerated Since: 2016
• Sentence Received: 41 years (Virtual Life Sentence)
• Earliest Release: 2051